The U.S. has traditionally been an agricultural powerhouse with a healthy trade surplus. But global dynamics are changing as U.S. agricultural imports now exceed exports due to a confluence of political and economic factors.
In a new study, researchers from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and Texas Tech University believe that the trade deficit is projected to worsen in the coming years.
“For most of recent history, the U.S. was a net agricultural exporter. But in the last couple of years, that has reversed, and what used to be a persistent surplus has turned into a persistent and growing deficit, where we’re importing much more than we export. Current projections estimate that the agricultural trade deficit will reach $49 billion by the end of 2025,” said lead author William Ridley, associate professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, part of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at U. of I. He conducted the study with Stephen Devadoss, professor of agricultural and applied economics at Texas Tech.
The researchers noted that imports have increased considerably, particularly fruits and vegetables, such as avocados from Mexico, and canola oil from Canada. The U.S. continues to be a major producer of agricultural commodities, like corn, oilseeds, and cotton, but exports are stagnant or declining.
“Row crops are the backbone of U.S. agricultural exports, but markets are shifting as trade conflicts create uncertainty and instability. One of the main factors causing exports to nosedive is the ongoing trade dispute with China,” Ridley said.
As the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities such as soybean, wheat, corn, and cotton. These products were strategically targeted by China due to their importance for U.S. exports, and because they are primarily produced in states that support the Republican administration, the researchers noted.
From 2017 to 2018, the trade dispute resulted in U.S.–China export values declining by $9 billion (73%) for soybeans, $431.7 million (67%) for wheat, $92.6 million (61%) for corn, and $312.5 million (37%) for sorghum. The total value of lost agricultural exports amounted to around $14 billion.
The Phase One trade deal that was negotiated in 2020 briefly increased Chinese agricultural imports from the U.S., but trade quickly collapsed again, and China has effectively stopped buying soybeans, corn, cotton, and sorghum from the U.S., after finding trade partners elsewhere.
At the same time, the U.S. is losing its competitive edge to other big grain producers like Brazil, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine.
In their study, Ridley and Devadoss estimate the comparative advantage of major crop producers, taking into account factors such as productivity growth, export and trade infrastructure, and government support for agriculture. They find that while U.S. agricultural productivity has remained stable, other countries have been catching up.
For example, Brazil’s soybean production has rapidly evolved due to expansions in farmland, dramatic improvements in productivity, and government investments in transportation infrastructure, and they have solidly surpassed the U.S. as the world’s leading soybean producer and exporter.
Furthermore, China is not only buying from other suppliers; the country is undertaking massive efforts to bolster its self-sufficiency, including major investments in research and development and expanding the use of genetically modified crop varieties.
“U.S. row crop exports are trending in a negative direction, and forecasts predict the downward trend will continue. Producers may look to other markets, but there’s only one China, and they’re not coming back tomorrow. Even if you pulled these tariffs back right now, sales would not resume. And other markets have barriers to trade; for example, the EU has tight restrictions on imports of genetically modified crops,” Ridley stated.
The researchers also highlight other factors influencing agricultural production and exports, including cuts in public funding for university research.
“There’s a strong link between research funding and productivity, and productivity affects the position of the U.S. agricultural sector globally. That also includes funding of research to mitigate the effects of climate change on the agricultural industry,” Ridley said.
If there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon, he added, it is that the U.S. is working on new bilateral trade agreements with different countries.
“Economists view expanded access for our exports as a good thing to strive for if you want to ensure the viability of U.S. agriculture. Negotiating trade agreements isn’t an easy thing to do, but it’s something we should continue to pursue.”
The paper, “Row Crops and the U.S. Agricultural Trade Deficit: Recent Trends and Policy Issues,” is published in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy.
Written by: Marianne Stein
Source: College of Agricultural, Consumer & Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
