Beef prices are projected to continue increasing in 2026 as U.S. beef production continues to decline, with no obvious signs of a rebuilding cattle herd. That’s according to John Lovett, .
At the beginning of 2025, U.S. cattle inventories were at their lowest point since the 1950s, and the industry has been in liquidation mode since it peaked at 94.7 million head in 2019. “Since then, the nation’s beef herd has decreased by eight million head of cattle,” says Lovett.
Liquidating cattle inventories is one phase of a typical cattle cycle, which is a ten-to-12-year pattern of expanding and contracting cattle numbers, driven largely by changes in producer profitability and worsened by drought.
Retail beef prices have averaged $8.56 per pound through August 2025 — up 60 cents per pound from the same period last year.
Beef has been running about four times more expensive per pound than chicken over the past two years, and as domestic protein demand remains relatively strong, poultry stands to gain more ground against beef and pork.
Bloomberg said cheap beef could be driven further out of reach for many consumers as Brazil, another large cattle supplier, is heading into a period of shrinking cattle numbers that could push global prices higher.
Sources: The Magnolia Reporter, NAFB News Service
