The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday raised its forecast for domestic wheat stockpiles while leaving corn and soybean outlooks largely unchanged, underscoring ample global supplies and steady demand trends heading into the next marketing year.
In its closely watched monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the agency projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025–2026 at 938 million bushels, up from last month and roughly 10 percent higher than a year ago. The increase, driven by higher imports and reduced seed use, puts inventories at their highest level since the 2019–2020 season.
By contrast, USDA made no changes to its corn or soybean carryout estimates. Corn ending stocks were held at 2.127 billion bushels, while soybean inventories remained at 350 million bushels. Analysts said stronger domestic soybean processing — known as crush — offset weaker export demand, reflecting shifting global trade flows.
The agency raised its outlook for soybean crush by 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion, citing increased domestic use of soybean meal. Exports were trimmed by an equal amount as competition from South America, particularly Brazil, weighed on U.S. shipments.
Despite relatively modest changes to supply and demand balances, USDA nudged price forecasts higher across all three major crops. The season-average farm price is now projected at $5 per bushel for wheat, $4.15 for corn and $10.30 for soybeans.
Globally, wheat supplies also increased, with higher production and exports expected from Russia. Estimates for corn and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina were unchanged, though Brazil’s soybean exports were revised upward.
Markets showed little immediate reaction to the report, as traders had largely anticipated minimal adjustments.
USDA is scheduled to release its next supply-and-demand update on May 10, which will include its first official projections for the upcoming crop year.
CLICK BELOW to hear analysis of USDA’s April WASDE report from Karl Setzer with Consus Ag Consulting:
