As combines roll across Indiana fields harvesting the 2026 crop, Purdue University agricultural economists are delivering a direct, urgent message to the state’s grain producers: the time to lock in your financial strategy for 2027 isn’t next spring—it is right now.
Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture has released its initial 2027 Crop Cost & Return Guide, offering a crucial first look at projected revenues, variable expenses, and contribution margins for continuous corn, rotation corn, rotation soybeans, wheat, and double-crop soybeans across low-, average-, and high-productivity Hoosier soils.
While harvest results are still being finalized, Dr. Michael Langemeier, Purdue University professor of Agricultural Economics and Director of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture, warns that waiting for crop conditions or input prices to settle before running farm-level projections is a dangerous gamble.
“If you’re starting to think about your 2027 crop plan, one of the first questions is simple: What does it look like on paper? What might your crop cost to produce? What could it return? And what happens if your yield, price, or input costs don’t look like the assumptions you’re using today? These things can change very quickly, and they typically do,” says Langemeier.
Don’t Mistake Margin for Profit
The initial September 2026 projections show positive contribution margins across Indiana soil types. Average-productivity land estimates put rotation corn contribution margins at $295 per acre, rotation soybeans at $350 per acre, and continuous corn at $197 per acre. Wheat comes in at approximately $209 per acre, with an additional $209 per acre estimated for double-crop soybeans in a full rotation.
However, Langemeier cautions growers against reading these contribution margins as cash in the bank.
“The contribution margin is not the same thing as farm profit or net return per acre. It’s what’s left after variable costs to cover things like machinery ownership, labor, and land, and risk. Those are large costs. So for example, a contribution margin of $295 per acre for rotation corn doesn’t mean the farm earns $295 per acre,” according to Langemeier.
When overhead expenses—such as cash rent, family living, labor, equipment depreciation, and interest—are factored in, those positive margins can shrink rapidly or turn into net losses if yields lag or input costs spike.
Moving Target: Why Early Baselines Matter
The initial Purdue estimates rely on market harvest price assumptions pulled from opening CME Group futures on September 15, 2026, minus local basis expectations. But with global supply dynamics, fertilizer price fluctuations, and shifting spring weather patterns ahead, those numbers are guaranteed to move.
“The September estimates include continuous corn, rotation corn, rotation soybeans, wheat and double-crop soybeans for low, average and high productivity soils. Now those numbers are useful, but I wouldn’t look at them as a forecast of what you’re going to make in 2027. Like I said earlier, they are a starting point,” says Langemeier.
Because input prices vary drastically depending on purchase timing and location, Purdue updates the budget model continuously throughout the winter, culminating in a final estimate in March 2027.
“At this present time, we’re looking way ahead, and so your price probably will be different as you work on these budgets throughout the winter and spring. The crop budget spreadsheet allows you to change these assumptions very easily and see how they affect your projected return,” says Langemeier.
Tailoring the Numbers to Your Acres
Purdue’s accompanying decision-making tool—a fully customizable budget spreadsheet—is designed to help Indiana producers replace statewide averages with their own field-by-field realistic projections.
“Rather than just asking, ‘What does Purdue say corn will make?’ you can ask a much more useful question: ‘What does corn look like on my farm or for one of my fields using the numbers I expect for 2027?’ The goal isn’t to predict exactly what 2027 is going to look like, rather, the goal is to start putting some numbers around it,” says Langemeier.
Building these farm-level numbers early provides growers with a definitive baseline for establishing break-even commodity prices—a vital prerequisite for constructing a proactive 2027 grain marketing strategy.
“The budgets are very important to trying to get some idea of your break-even price, which can be used in your marketing plan. We’ll update the Purdue crop budgets several times between now and planting season so you can continue to revisit those assumptions,” says Langemeier.
Take Action for 2027
Indiana producers can CLICK HERE to download the full 2027 Purdue Crop Cost & Return Guide and access the customizable budget spreadsheet directly through the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture.
