USDA’s chief economist Justin Benavidez says farmers shouldn’t expect much help from higher crop prices in 2026.
“We see a dime increase in price per bushel for corn, beans, and wheat.”
Speaking at the 102nd USDA Annual Outlook Forum, the United States Department of Agriculture outlook pointed to only modest gains ahead, meaning producers will need stronger long-term solutions to stay profitable.
Benavidez continues, “I think most of our producers agree that federal support, whether it be ad hoc, or whether it be planned long-term investments, government support is not the way out for producers. They want markets. They want increased demand.”
Corn acres are forecast to drop sharply, down nearly five million acres, while soybean plantings are expected to climb by almost four million. That shift reflects tighter margins for corn and continued demand for soybeans.
“We see that this year we’re trending more toward the soybean acreage side than we were at this time last year.” Adds Benavidez
Benavidez says that’s a key concern. While assistance is helping stabilize farm finances now, it doesn’t replace the need for improved prices and stronger market opportunities over time.
He concludes, “I do think finalization of 45Z and any changes to the RFS will be some of the major inflection points in the year as we think forward about what could change the price picture.”
The bottom line: the farm economy may see some improvement in 2026, but meaningful recovery will likely depend on longer-term market strength…not just government support.
