Farmer sentiment declined in April, reflecting mounting concern over rising input costs, tightening supplies and geopolitical instability, according to the latest survey by the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer — a nationwide gauge of the farm economy based on a survey of 400 producers — fell to 121 in April, down from 127 in March. The drop was driven largely by worsening views of current conditions, which fell sharply, while expectations for the future also edged lower and remain well below year-ago levels.
The data point to a sector growing more cautious as financial pressures persist. Just 15 percent of farmers said their operations were in better shape than a year earlier. Looking ahead, 28 percent expect their financial performance to worsen over the next 12 months, compared with 25 percent who anticipate improvement.
A key source of anxiety remains the cost and availability of inputs. Nearly half of respondents identified high input costs as their top concern, while worries about input availability increased during the month. Economists say those pressures have been exacerbated by global instability, including disruptions to fertilizer and energy markets tied to ongoing conflict abroad.
The uncertainty is already shaping farmers’ decisions. The Farm Capital Investment Index — a measure of willingness to make large expenditures — fell nine points to 44, its lowest level since October 2024, signaling a pullback in spending and expansion plans.
Producers are also bracing for tighter margins ahead. Roughly two-thirds of respondents expect their net farm income to decline in 2026. Among corn growers, most anticipate higher break-even prices, with more than a third expecting increases of at least 10 percent.
Ag economists point to a combination of elevated costs and uncertainty that’s making planning especially difficult, caused in part by volatility in fertilizer markets and broader economic conditions.
Sentiment about farmland values and the broader economy also softened. Both short- and long-term farmland value expectations declined, with farmers citing interest rates, inflation and alternative investments as key influences. Meanwhile, the share of producers who believe the U.S. economy is headed in the “right direction” fell to 57 percent, down from 65 percent a month earlier.
Despite the more pessimistic outlook, some producers still see competitive strengths within their operations. A majority said they believe their farms have lower per-unit fixed costs than peers, suggesting efforts to manage efficiency and risk remain a priority.
Still, the overall tone of the April survey underscores a sector under strain, with farmers navigating a complex mix of economic pressure and global uncertainty as they plan for the coming years.
