National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) leadership is calling out the federal government after USDA admitted late Friday to a major data processing error in its September crop reporting—a mistake corn industry leaders say severely damaged grain markets at the worst possible time for Midwest producers.
In a sharp rebuke issued Friday, NCGA President Matt Frostic, a Michigan farmer, condemned the error, linking recent USDA reporting shifts directly to sharp sell-offs in corn futures that have hammered farm balance sheets across the country.
“Recent reports by NASS have cost corn growers BILLIONS of dollars in market value, at a time when profit margins were already marginal, at best, and the cost for fuel and other inputs are at all-time highs,” Frostic stated. “Corn prices dropped in conjunction with the release of recent reports and have only continued to drop. An error of this magnitude is unacceptable, and only further erodes farmer confidence in the agency’s ability to produce statistically sound and accurate reports.
“NASS needs to seriously examine the processes and procedures that led to this mistake and take immediate action to prevent it from occurring again. We are anxious to meet with the service to understand their plans for improvement and how they intend to rebuild farmer confidence in these reports,” said Frostic.
Frostic’s warning comes on the heels of an official statement released Oct. 23 by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The agency acknowledged that a technical processing error corrupted September corn plant populations, ear counts, yields, and production data for Kansas and Nebraska, while also distorting 10-state Midwest averages and national yield forecasts.
Corrected Baseline, Unchanged Forecast
While NASS quietly updated its database to fix the September baseline—raising Nebraska’s September yield estimate from 177 to 182 bushels per acre and lifting the September U.S. average from 178.5 to 178.8 bushels—the agency refused to adjust its controversial October projections.
NASS emphasized that its Oct. 9 forecast of a 181.2-bushel-per-acre national average yield and a total 16-billion-bushel crop was reviewed, validated, and remains entirely unchanged.
For NCGA and state commodity groups, that decision leaves unresolved questions. Much of the October report’s market-shaking yield hike originated in Nebraska, where NASS originally reported an 11-bushel month-over-month jump (from 177 to 188). By revising September’s baseline up to 182, NASS reframed that increase as a 6-bushel gain—yet the market sell-off triggered by the initial October numbers remains unaddressed.
Regional Fallout for Indiana and Michigan Producers
Frostic’s focus on the financial impact hits close to home for producers across Indiana and Michigan who are currently finishing up harvest:
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Cash Market Pressure: Because NASS held its national production forecast above 16 billion bushels, futures prices remain depressed. Local elevators, river terminals, and processors throughout the Eastern Corn Belt continue to reflect that heavy national paper supply in weak cash bids and compressed basis.
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Marginal Yields and Tight Margins: Weather variability across northern Indiana and Michigan’s Thumb meant many fields produced average or slightly below-average yields. With low crop prices failing to cover high fixed seed, fertilizer, and fuel costs, farmers are feeling an intense margin squeeze.
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Marketing Strategy Disruptions: The sequence of report updates and sudden price drops has complicated fall marketing decisions, forcing growers to evaluate whether to sell grain off the combine at a discount or absorb commercial storage costs into the winter.
Restoring Trust in Federal Statistics
As harvest wraps up across the Midwest, grower leaders emphasize that transparent and reliable federal data is vital for risk management, crop insurance, and daily grain marketing.
While NASS indicated it is exploring expanded technology and automation to prevent future calculation mistakes, NCGA maintains that restoring producer trust will require far greater accuracy and accountability from the agency moving forward.
