After enduring two punishing years of disease-driven flock losses and razor-thin margins, Indiana turkey growers are finally seeing relief on their balance sheets. Stronger wholesale prices, brisk domestic consumption and surging exports have lifted farm-level returns across the Hoosier State in 2026.
Yet according to a new economic analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the very rebound putting money back into growers’ pockets this fall could set the stage for a painful price-cost squeeze in 2027—unless producers lock in feed costs, double down on biosecurity and keep international trade pipelines wide open.
Indiana sits squarely at the center of that national equation. Ranking fourth in the nation with 20 million birds raised annually, Indiana—alongside Minnesota, North Carolina, Arkansas and Missouri—accounts for roughly 68% of all turkeys produced in the United States. Centered heavily in southwestern Indiana around Dubois and Daviess counties, the state’s turkey sector relies on local corn and soybean meal to fuel one of the most efficient poultry belts in the country.
Nationwide, USDA’s Turkeys Raised report estimates farmers raised 198.5 million turkeys in 2026, up 5 million birds—or about 3%—from 2025, marking the first annual flock expansion since 2023. Federally inspected turkey meat production is projected to climb 6% this year to 5.13 billion pounds.
“Production is growing again, and as demand has been strong, growers are seeing some better returns,” says Bernt Nelson, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. “But this disease pressure and changes in higher feed costs have continued to create some uncertainty among turkey growers heading into ’27.”
Supply Expansion Meets Price Moderation
For much of 2026, tight cold-storage supplies and resilient consumer demand have driven dramatic price gains. USDA’s October Cold Storage report showed roughly 360 million pounds of turkey in storage at the end of September—down 4.5% from 2025 and nearly 16% below 2024 levels.
That tightness pushed the 2026 annual average wholesale price for frozen whole hen turkeys to a projected $1.76 per pound, up 30% from last year and nearly 88% above the 94-cent average in 2024. While vertical integration makes exact farm-gate payouts difficult to track, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Producer Price Index for slaughter turkeys indicates grower returns rose roughly 21% in 2026 to the equivalent of $1.39 per pound.
However, USDA expects turkey meat production to expand for a second consecutive year in 2027, reaching 5.18 billion pounds. As supplies rebuild, USDA forecasts average wholesale hen prices to drop 18% next year to $1.45 per pound.
“Looking towards 2027, it’ll really all be up to that increased production and what demand looks like going forward,” Nelson explains. “Right now, forecasts are just not showing enough of that all coming together. And so USDA is forecasting lower prices for next year with higher production.”
The Twin Threat of Feed Costs and Disease
A softening wholesale market is especially concerning for Hoosier operations because feed accounts for roughly two-thirds of the total cost of raising a market bird—requiring 75 to 80 pounds of feed to bring a 38-pound tom to market weight.
While Indiana growers benefit from immediate proximity to Corn Belt grain supplies, national feed benchmarks remain elevated compared to a year ago. USDA projects the season-average farm price of corn at $4.70 per bushel, up 13% from 2025, while soybean meal averages $340 per ton, up 4.5%.
“Overall, the USDA price is still at $4.70 per bushel for corn,” Nelson notes. “That’s keeping our costs a little bit elevated above where they were two years ago, and that’s definitely creating a marginal squeeze.”
Compounding feed expenses is a dual biological threat. While Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) commands public headlines—claiming more than 250,000 commercial turkeys nationwide in October alone during fall wild-bird migration—avian metapneumovirus (aMPV) has emerged as a pervasive silent drain on grower profitability.
Research from Texas A&M AgriLife Extension estimates aMPV affected 60% to 80% of U.S. turkey flocks in 2024, slashing industry value by $2.88 billion. By triggering upper-respiratory illness, aMPV slows weight gain and degrades feed conversion—forcing growers to burn more expensive feed for every pound of meat produced.
“The turkey sector overall is getting hit with both of these disease pressures at the same time,” Nelson says. “When we start seeing those migrations coming through for avian influenza, northern states can certainly be exposed earlier on in the migration when we see higher concentrations of avian influenza.”
Why Mexico Holds the Key to 2027 Margins
With domestic production rising, international trade remains a vital pressure valve for clearing dark meat and balancing U.S. supplies. USDA projects 2026 turkey exports to hit 461 million pounds, up nearly 10% from 2025.
Mexico is by far America’s most critical customer, importing nearly 40 times more U.S. turkey than second-place Canada, with shipments to Mexico running 6.4% ahead of last year’s pace through August. Any trade friction during upcoming North American trade reviews could quickly back up domestic cold-storage inventories.
“Mexico is our biggest trade partner,” Nelson emphasizes. “And so the relationship between the U.S., Canada and Mexico through the USMCA review and some of the negotiations could prove to be a really critical piece of this demand.”
Building a 2027 Game Plan
For Indiana turkey producers and agribusiness lenders evaluating cash flow for 2027, Nelson says survival comes down to controlling every variable inside the barn gate while actively managing market risk outside of it.
That means maintaining strict biosecurity protocols throughout fall and spring migrations, monitoring corn and soybean meal basis opportunities in local Indiana grain markets, and putting risk-management strategies in writing before volatility strikes.
“Write down your marketing plan so that when these opportunities arise or when shocks occur, you have a plan, you know what to do, and you know how that impacts your bottom line,” Nelson advises.
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